Study this source. Source E 'It was the Soviet Union, not the Western Allies, that broke the back of the German army. The battles of Stalingrad, Kursk and O...

Understanding the question type: This is a 12-mark judgement question requiring sustained evaluation of a statement. You must argue both sides using source evidence and your own knowledge, and reach a supported conclusion. The highest level demands not just listing arguments but analysing the relationship between Western and Eastern contributions to victory.

The statement to evaluate: 'It was the Soviet Union, not the Western Allies, that broke the back of the German army. The battles of Stalingrad, Kursk and Operation Bagration destroyed the fighting power of the Wehrmacht long before D-Day. By June 1944, when the Western Allies finally landed in Normandy, Germany had already lost the war on the Eastern Front.'

Arguments supporting the statement (the Eastern Front was decisive):

• The statistical case is overwhelming. Approximately 80% of German military casualties in the entire war occurred on the Eastern Front. Germany committed over 200 divisions to the east, compared with far fewer in North Africa, Italy, and France.
• Stalingrad (August 1942 to February 1943) destroyed the German Sixth Army. Around 300,000 German troops were encircled, and 91,000 surrendered, including Field Marshal Paulus. This was the first major German army to surrender and marked the turning point of the war.
• Kursk (July 1943) was the largest tank battle in history, involving approximately 6,000 tanks. The German defeat ended their capacity for major offensives in the east permanently.
• Operation Bagration (June to August 1944) destroyed Army Group Centre, inflicting approximately 400,000 German casualties. This was a larger single defeat than anything Germany suffered in the west.
• The Soviet Union mobilised over 34 million military personnel during the war and suffered approximately 8.7 million military deaths, dwarfing the losses of any other Allied nation.
• By June 1944, Germany's best combat divisions were committed to the Eastern Front. Normandy was defended largely by lower-quality units, including conscripts from occupied territories.

Arguments challenging the statement (the Western contribution was essential):

• Strategic bombing: The Allied bombing campaign forced Germany to divert over a million personnel to anti-aircraft defence, along with thousands of fighters, radar installations, and vast quantities of ammunition. This drew resources away from the Eastern Front. By 1944, the bombing campaign was destroying German fuel production, crippling the Luftwaffe's ability to operate on any front.
• Lend-Lease: American supplies to the USSR were critical, particularly in the early, desperate years. The United States provided approximately 400,000 trucks (which gave the Red Army its logistical mobility for deep operations), 14,000 aircraft, 13,000 tanks, millions of tonnes of food, and vast quantities of raw materials including aluminium and aviation fuel. Soviet generals, including Zhukov, later acknowledged that without Lend-Lease the war could not have been sustained.
• Mediterranean and Italian campaigns: The North Africa campaign (1942-43) and the invasion of Italy (1943) forced Germany to deploy divisions in southern Europe that could otherwise have gone east. The Italian campaign also knocked Italy out of the Axis, removing a German ally.
• Battle of the Atlantic: British and American naval forces kept the sea lanes open, enabling the flow of supplies and the eventual invasion of France. If Germany had won the Battle of the Atlantic, no cross-Channel invasion would have been possible.
• British resistance in 1940-41: Britain's survival after the fall of France meant that Germany faced a two-front strategic problem throughout the war. Without a western base, there would have been no bombing campaign, no Mediterranean theatre, and no D-Day.
• American industrial output: The United States produced more war material than all other belligerents combined, equipping not only its own forces but also Britain and the Soviet Union.

Reaching a conclusion: The statement is broadly accurate in military terms: the Eastern Front was the primary theatre where German combat power was ground down. The sheer scale of Soviet losses and the destruction of entire German army groups on the eastern front have no equivalent in the west. However, the statement oversimplifies by treating the war as a series of independent theatres. The Allied war effort was interconnected: Lend-Lease sustained Soviet logistics, strategic bombing degraded German industry and air power, and the Mediterranean campaigns diverted German reserves. No single ally could have defeated Germany alone. The Soviet Union paid the highest price in blood, the United States contributed the most in industrial output, and Britain provided the strategic base from which the western campaigns were launched. The statement is right that the Eastern Front was decisive, but wrong to imply that the Western contribution was marginal or unnecessary.

Mark scheme breakdown:

• Level 1 [1-3 marks]: Simple agreement or disagreement with minimal support.
• Level 2 [4-6 marks]: Supports one side with some evidence. For example, cites Stalingrad or Kursk as turning points, or mentions D-Day and bombing as Western contributions, but does not balance the argument.
• Level 3 [7-9 marks]: Evaluates both sides using sources and own knowledge. Explains the Eastern Front's decisive role (casualty statistics, specific battles) while acknowledging Western contributions (Lend-Lease, bombing, Battle of the Atlantic). May begin to analyse the interconnection between theatres.
• Level 4 [10-12 marks]: Sustained evaluation reaching a supported conclusion. Goes beyond listing contributions to analyse how the different theatres were interdependent. Recognises that the Eastern Front was the primary theatre while arguing that the war was won by a coalition whose contributions reinforced each other. Uses detailed knowledge to support a nuanced judgement.

Exam tip: For 12-mark questions about the relative importance of factors, avoid simply listing points for each side. The best answers show how the factors are connected. In this case, explaining how Lend-Lease enabled Soviet offensives or how bombing diverted German fighters from the east demonstrates a higher level of analysis than treating each contribution in isolation.