A geography class is studying how human populations have changed across the world. The students have gathered data from a United Nations population report a...

(a)(i) Using Fig. 1, the approximate rates in 1950:

• Birth rate: approximately 47 per 1000 [1].
• Death rate: approximately 44 per 1000 [1].

These values are read from the y-axis where each line begins on the left side of the graph in 1950.

(a)(ii) The natural increase (the gap between the birth rate and death rate lines) has changed significantly:

1. In 1950, the natural increase was very small, approximately 3 per 1000, because the birth rate and death rate were almost equal [1].
2. By 2010, the gap had widened considerably because the death rate fell much more rapidly than the birth rate. The natural increase in 2010 was approximately 14 per 1000 (birth rate ~20, death rate ~6) [1].

(b) Two reasons why the death rate in Country R has fallen [2 marks each: 1 for reason, 1 for explanation]:

1. Improved healthcare: Better access to healthcare services, including vaccinations and treatment of infectious diseases, has reduced deaths from preventable illnesses such as measles, malaria and tuberculosis [1+1].
2. Better nutrition and water: Improved nutrition from increased food supply, and access to clean water and sanitation, have reduced deaths from malnutrition and waterborne diseases such as cholera and dysentery [1+1].

(c) Natural increase is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate, usually expressed as a percentage of the population [1]. Country Z has a negative natural increase (-0.1%) because its death rate (11 per 1000) exceeds its birth rate (10 per 1000) [1], meaning more people are dying each year than are being born. The population would shrink without immigration [1].

(d) Two differences between Country X (Stage 2) and Country Z (Stage 4) [2 marks each: 1 for each side of the comparison]:

1. Birth rate: Country X has a much higher birth rate (42 per 1000) compared to Country Z (10 per 1000) [1+1].
2. Life expectancy: Country X has a much lower life expectancy (58 years) compared to Country Z (82 years), reflecting differences in healthcare, nutrition and living conditions [1+1].

Other valid comparisons include: infant mortality rate (65 vs 4), or total fertility rate (5.6 vs 1.5).

(e)(i) The total fertility rate in Country S fell significantly from 5.8 in 1970 to 1.3 in 2020 [1]. The steepest decline occurred between 1970 and 1980 (5.8 to 2.7), coinciding with the introduction of the population control policy. The rate of decrease slowed after 1990 [1].

(e)(ii) The population continued to grow despite sub-replacement fertility because of population momentum:

1. The large number of women of childbearing age, born during the earlier high-fertility period, continued to have children. Even with fewer children per woman, the total number of births remained high because there were so many mothers [1].
2. Each woman had fewer children, but the total births still exceeded the number of deaths because the population structure had a large proportion of young adults who were reproducing [1].
3. The population also benefited from declining mortality - people were living longer, so fewer were dying relative to the total, contributing to net growth [1].

(f) Two problems from a very low fertility rate over a long period [1 each]:

1. Ageing population with labour shortages: A shrinking workforce leads to labour shortages and slower economic growth, with fewer workers to drive productivity.
2. Increased dependency costs: Growing costs for elderly care, pensions and healthcare as the proportion of elderly dependents rises, while fewer working-age taxpayers fund these services.

(g) Two reasons why Village Q has more children per family than Village P [2 marks each: 1 for the factor, 1 for explanation]:

1. Limited healthcare access: Only 35% of people in Village Q have access to healthcare (compared to 95% in Village P), meaning contraception and family planning services are less available. Fewer women can choose to limit their family size [1+1].
2. Lower education and literacy: The literacy rate in Village Q is only 58% (versus 92% in Village P). Lower education levels, particularly for women, mean less awareness of family planning methods and fewer career opportunities that might encourage smaller families [1+1].

(h) Improving education for women in Village Q could reduce the birth rate because:

1. Family planning knowledge: Educated women are more likely to understand and use family planning methods, leading to fewer unplanned pregnancies [1].
2. Career opportunities: Education provides women with career pathways, so they may delay having children to pursue employment and choose to have fewer overall [1].
3. Quality over quantity: Educated mothers tend to prioritise quality of life and resources for each child, investing in fewer children's education and health rather than having a large number [1].

(i) Calculating the percentage increase in the city's population:

Increase = 7,200,000 - 2,400,000 = 4,800,000 [1]

\[\text{Percentage increase} = \frac{4\,800\,000}{2\,400\,000} \times 100 = 200\%\] [1]

(j) Three strategies to manage challenges from rapid urban growth [2 marks each, max 6]:

1. Water and sanitation infrastructure: Invest in expanding the water supply network and sanitation systems to provide clean water and safe waste disposal for the growing urban population, reducing waterborne diseases [1+1].
2. Affordable housing: Build affordable housing and upgrade informal settlements to reduce overcrowding, improve living conditions and reduce the health risks associated with inadequate shelter [1+1].
3. Public transport: Develop efficient public transport networks (buses, rail) to reduce traffic congestion and air pollution from private vehicles, while connecting people to employment and services [1+1].

Other valid strategies include: expanding healthcare and education services, developing satellite towns, or implementing waste management systems.

(k) The birth rate in Country R has declined more slowly than the death rate because:

1. Birth rates are influenced by social and cultural factors that change slowly, such as traditional values favouring large families, religious beliefs about contraception, and the economic value placed on children as farm labourers and old-age support [1].
2. These attitudes take longer to shift than the medical and technological advances (vaccines, clean water, antibiotics) that reduced death rates rapidly [1].

(l) One reason why Country S relaxed its population control policy [1]:

• Concern about the rapidly ageing population and a future shortage of working-age people to support economic growth and fund pensions for the elderly.

Other valid answers include: growing gender imbalance, or the policy being seen as restricting personal freedom.