A student investigating population change has collected data about Country J, a high-income country in Western Europe with a population that has been changi...

(a)(i) Life expectancy is the average number of years a person is expected to live from birth [1]. It is a key indicator of the overall health and development level of a country - higher life expectancy generally reflects better healthcare, nutrition and living conditions.

(a)(ii) Life expectancy increased from 73 years in 1980 to 83 years in 2020, an increase of 10 years [1]. This substantial improvement reflects the advances in healthcare, medicine and preventive care described in the passage.

(b) Calculating the dependency ratio for Country J in 2020:

\[\text{Dependency ratio} = \frac{\% \text{ aged 0-14} + \% \text{ aged 65+}}{\% \text{ aged 15-64}} \times 100\] [1]

\[= \frac{17 + 21}{62} \times 100 = \frac{38}{62} \times 100\] [1]

\[= 61.3 \text{ dependents per 100 working-age people}\]

Although this ratio is lower than a typical developing country, the composition is different - in Country J, most of the dependent population is elderly rather than young, which creates different economic challenges (pension costs and healthcare for the elderly, rather than education costs for children).

(c) Two changes in population structure between 1980 and 2020 [2 marks each: 1 for the change, 1 for data support]:

1. Decline in young people: The proportion aged 0-14 decreased from 22% in 1980 to 17% in 2020. Fig. 1 shows a shorter bar for the 0-14 group in 2020 compared to 1980, reflecting the falling birth rate and fertility rate (from 2.0 to 1.4 children per woman) [1+1].
2. Growth of elderly population: The proportion aged 65+ increased from 14% in 1980 to 21% in 2020. Fig. 1 shows a taller bar for the 65+ group in 2020, indicating the population is ageing as people live longer (life expectancy increased from 73 to 83 years) [1+1].

(d) Two reasons why the birth rate in Country J has decreased since 1980 [1 each]:

1. Greater female education and career access: Women now have more access to education and the labour market, meaning many delay having children or choose smaller families to balance career and family life. The average age at first birth rose from 25 to 31 [1].
2. Rising costs: The high cost of housing, childcare and education makes raising children more expensive, discouraging larger families. These financial pressures are a powerful brake on fertility [1].

Other valid answers include: widespread availability of contraception, or the later age of first childbirth reducing the total number of children a woman is likely to have.

(e) Two social or economic problems from an ageing population [2 marks each: 1 for identifying, 1 for explaining]:

1. Pension system pressure: The growing number of retired people places increasing financial pressure on the state pension system, because fewer working-age taxpayers must support a larger number of pensioners. The system was designed when the elderly proportion was 14%, not 21% [1+1].
2. Healthcare demand: Greater demand for healthcare services for elderly people, including specialist care for age-related conditions (dementia, heart disease, mobility issues), increases government spending and may lead to longer waiting times for all patients [1+1].

Other valid answers include: a shrinking labour force causing labour shortages, or the cost of social care and residential homes diverting resources from other public services.

(f) Immigration helps manage the ageing population in three ways:

1. Working-age tax base: Immigrants tend to be of working age, increasing the proportion of the population who are employed and paying taxes. This helps fund pensions and healthcare for the growing elderly population [1].
2. Higher fertility: Immigrants often have higher fertility rates than the existing population, which can help increase the birth rate and partially offset the ageing trend [1].
3. Labour shortages filled: Immigration fills labour shortages in sectors where there are not enough younger domestic workers, such as healthcare, construction and agriculture - exactly the sectors needed to support an ageing society [1].

(g) Improvements in healthcare have changed population structure by:

1. Reduced infant and child mortality: Better healthcare, including vaccinations, pre-natal care and treatment of childhood diseases, has significantly reduced death rates among infants and children. More people survive childhood, contributing to population growth [1].
2. Longer lifespans: Improved treatment of diseases such as cancer and heart disease, along with better preventive care, has allowed people to live much longer. Life expectancy increased from 73 to 83 years [1].
3. Structural shift: The combination of lower death rates and longer life spans means a growing proportion of the population is in the 65+ age group. The population pyramid shifts from a broad-based triangle to a more column-like shape [1].

(h) Two government policies that could encourage people to have more children [1 each]:

1. Financial incentives: Providing child benefit payments, tax credits or grants for families with children to offset the cost of raising them.
2. Affordable childcare: Offering subsidised childcare so that both parents can continue working without the full financial burden of private childcare.

Other valid answers include: extending paid maternity and paternity leave, or building more affordable family housing.

(i) The population of Country J has continued to grow despite a falling birth rate because:

1. Immigration: Although the birth rate (9 per 1000) is now lower than the death rate (10 per 1000), creating a small natural decrease, the net migration rate has increased from 1 to 4 per 1000. This immigration adds approximately 268,000 people per year (67 million x 4/1000), more than compensating for the natural decrease [1].
2. Longer lifespans: People are living much longer due to improved healthcare (life expectancy rose from 73 to 83 years). Fewer people die each year relative to the total population, which slows the rate of natural decrease [1].
3. Population momentum: Even as fertility falls, the large cohorts born during the higher-fertility era of the 1960s-1980s are still alive, maintaining a large total population. The population structure takes decades to fully reflect reduced fertility [1].