Study this source. Source E 'The situation in the Balkans grows more dangerous by the month. The Ottoman Empire continues to weaken, and the small nations t...

This is a "how far do you agree" question worth [12 marks]. You must argue both sides using the source and your own knowledge, then reach a supported judgement.

Agreement - The Balkans crisis was the main reason [up to 5 marks]:

The source, from the Austro-Hungarian ambassador to Serbia in November 1913, highlights the instability in the Balkans that directly led to war. Using the source and own knowledge:

• The decline of the Ottoman Empire created a power vacuum in the Balkans, with newly independent nations competing for territory. Serbia had roughly doubled its territory through the Balkan Wars of 1912-1913.
• Serbian nationalist ambitions to unite all South Slavs directly threatened Austria-Hungary's multi-ethnic empire, which ruled over millions of Slavs in Bosnia and Croatia. The source captures this fear: "If Serbia is allowed to continue on this path, it will tear our Empire apart from within."
• The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo on 28 June 1914 by Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb nationalist, was the direct trigger for war. This was a product of exactly the tensions the source describes.
• Austria-Hungary's determination to punish Serbia led to the ultimatum of 23 July 1914. Serbia's inability to accept all terms led Austria to declare war on 28 July. Russia then mobilised to support Serbia, activating the alliance system and drawing in Germany, France, and Britain.
• Without the Balkan tensions described in the source, there would have been no assassination and no July Crisis.

Disagreement - Other causes were equally important [up to 5 marks]:

The Balkans provided the spark, but the war would not have become a world war without broader factors:

• The alliance system transformed a regional Balkan crisis into a continental war. The Franco-Russian Alliance (1894) meant Germany faced a two-front war. The Triple Entente drew Britain in.
• The Anglo-German naval arms race had poisoned relations between Britain and Germany and pushed Britain towards France and Russia.
• Imperial rivalries in Africa (the Moroccan Crises of 1905 and 1911) had created deep mistrust between the great powers.
• The Schlieffen Plan required Germany to invade through Belgium, which guaranteed British involvement under the Treaty of London (1839). Military planning left no room for diplomatic flexibility.
• Previous Balkan crises (the Bosnian Crisis of 1908, the Balkan Wars of 1912-1913) had not led to a general war, suggesting that the specific decisions made by leaders in July 1914 were as important as the underlying tensions.

Reaching a judgement [up to 2 marks]:

The Balkan crisis was essential as the immediate cause of war in 1914, and without it, there would have been no trigger for conflict at that specific moment. However, it became a world war only because of the pre-existing alliance system, military plans like the Schlieffen Plan, and great power rivalries that had been building for decades. The Balkans provided the match, but the fuel had been accumulating across Europe for years. No single cause can be isolated as "the main reason" - the war resulted from the combination of long-term tensions and short-term decisions.

Exam technique: For questions about causation, distinguish between long-term causes (alliance system, arms race, imperial rivalries), short-term causes (the Balkan crises), and the immediate trigger (the assassination). The strongest answers explain how these different levels of causation interact, rather than treating them as competing alternatives.