Mathematics - 9260 OxfordAQA

Probability

Akopọ

An ordinary six sided dice is rolled 300 times and lands on five 120 times. Do you think the dice is fair? That is a real two mark question from a specimen Core paper, and answering it needs three separate ideas: what probability a fair dice gives, how many fives that predicts in 300 rolls, and how far an actual result can drift from a prediction before you should be suspicious. Fifty is expected, 120 was observed, and the gap is far too large to be luck.

You will use the vocabulary of probability and the probability scale, find probabilities from theoretical models and from relative frequency, work with expected frequency, compare experimental data with theoretical probabilities, understand why repeating an experiment gives different outcomes and why a larger sample gives better estimates, build sample spaces for one event and for two successive events, handle mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, use Venn diagrams to work out probabilities, and calculate the probability of independent combined events including with tree diagrams. On the Extension Tier you add the addition rule for mutually exclusive events, the multiplication rule for independent events, and conditional probability.

Awọn Afojusun

  1. [Core] understand and use the vocabulary of probability and the probability scale
  2. [Core] understand and use estimates or measures of probability from theoretical models (including equally likely outcomes), or from relative frequency
  3. [Core] understand and use expected frequency
  4. [Core] compare experimental data and theoretical probabilities
  5. [Core] understand that if an experiment is repeated, this may - and usually will - result in different outcomes
  6. [Core] understand that increasing sample size generally leads to better estimates of probability and population characteristics
  7. [Core] understand and use sample spaces for situations where outcomes are single events and for situations where outcomes are two successive events
  8. [Core] identify different mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes and know that the sum of the probabilities of all these outcomes is 1
  9. [Extension] know and use that for mutually exclusive events A and B P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
  10. [Core] understand and use Venn diagrams to work out probabilities
  11. [Core] calculate the probability of independent combined events, including using tree diagrams and other representations
  12. [Extension] know and use that for independent events A and B P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)
  13. [Extension] calculate conditional probabilities including using tree diagrams and other representations

Àwòrán ọpọlọ

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Akọ̀wé Ẹ̀kọ́

A probability is a number on a scale from 0 to 1. Zero means the outcome is impossible, 1 means it is certain, and everything else lies between. The specification asks you to understand and use the vocabulary of probability and the probability scale, and a specimen Core paper tests exactly that by showing a spinner marked 7, 1, 5 and 3 and asking you to circle the word describing the chance of landing on an odd number. Every number on it is odd, so the answer is certain, a probability of 1.

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Oriire fun ipari ẹkọ lori Probability. Ni bayi ti o ti ṣawari naa awọn imọran bọtini ati awọn imọran, o to akoko lati fi imọ rẹ si idanwo. Ẹka yii nfunni ni ọpọlọpọ awọn adaṣe awọn ibeere ti a ṣe lati fun oye rẹ lokun ati ṣe iranlọwọ fun ọ lati ṣe iwọn oye ohun elo naa.

Iwọ yoo pade adalu awọn iru ibeere, pẹlu awọn ibeere olumulo pupọ, awọn ibeere idahun kukuru, ati awọn ibeere iwe kikọ. Gbogbo ibeere kọọkan ni a ṣe pẹlu iṣaro lati ṣe ayẹwo awọn ẹya oriṣiriṣi ti imọ rẹ ati awọn ogbon ironu pataki.

Lo ise abala yii gege bi anfaani lati mu oye re lori koko-ọrọ naa lagbara ati lati ṣe idanimọ eyikeyi agbegbe ti o le nilo afikun ikẹkọ. Maṣe jẹ ki awọn italaya eyikeyi ti o ba pade da ọ lójú; dipo, wo wọn gẹgẹ bi awọn anfaani fun idagbasoke ati ilọsiwaju.

  1. A spinner has four equal sectors numbered 7, 1, 5 and 3. Which word describes the chance of landing on an odd number? A. impossible B. unlikely C. likely D. certain Answer: D
  2. An ordinary six sided dice is rolled 300 times. How many fives would you expect if the dice is fair? A. 5 B. 30 C. 50 D. 120 Answer: C
  3. A bag has 9 counters, 4 of them blue. Two are taken without replacement. What is the probability that neither is blue? A. 25/81 B. 20/72 C. 20/81 D. 5/9 Answer: B
  4. For which pair of events is P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B) always correct? A. Mutually exclusive events B. Exhaustive events C. Independent events D. All pairs of events Answer: C
  5. In a class of 30, 18 study French, 14 study Spanish and 6 study both. What is the probability that a student chosen at random studies neither? A. 2/15 B. 1/5 C. 4/15 D. 8/15 Answer: A

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