Mathematics Specification B - 4MB1 PearsonEdexcel

Probability

Gbogbo ọrọ náà

A weather forecaster who says '70% chance of rain' is not guessing: that number comes from counting how often rain followed similar conditions in the past. Probability turns uncertainty into a precise number between 0 and 1, and once events start combining, whether one after another or at the same time, a small set of rules tells you exactly how to combine their probabilities correctly.

This topic builds the probability scale, sample spaces and relative frequency, then covers the addition rule for mutually exclusive events, the product rule for independent events, tree diagrams for combined and conditional events, very simple conditional probability, and expected frequency.

Ebumnobi

Understand the language and basic concepts of probability including the probability scale, sample spaces, relative frequency, probabilities and complements
Use the addition rule for two or more mutually exclusive events
Use the product rule for two or more independent events
Determine the probability of two or more independent events
Use simple conditional probability for combined events using tree diagrams
Find very simple conditional probability
Understand and use the term expected frequency

Akọmọ Ojú-ẹkọ

Every probability is a number from 0 to 1, where 0 means impossible and 1 means certain. A probability can be written as a fraction, a decimal or a percentage, and it can never fall outside this range: a calculation that produces a probability below 0 or above 1 contains an error.

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Ayẹwo Ẹkọ

Ekele diri gi maka imecha ihe karịrị na Probability. Ugbu a na ị na-enyochakwa isi echiche na echiche ndị dị mkpa, ọ bụ oge iji nwalee ihe ị ma. Ngwa a na-enye ụdị ajụjụ ọmụmụ dị iche iche emebere iji kwado nghọta gị wee nyere gị aka ịmata otú ị ghọtara ihe ndị a kụziri.

Ị ga-ahụ ngwakọta nke ụdị ajụjụ dị iche iche, gụnyere ajụjụ chọrọ ịhọrọ otu n’ime ọtụtụ azịza, ajụjụ chọrọ mkpirisi azịza, na ajụjụ ede ede. A na-arụpụta ajụjụ ọ bụla nke ọma iji nwalee akụkụ dị iche iche nke ihe ọmụma gị na nkà nke ịtụgharị uche.

Jiri akụkụ a nke nyocha ka ohere iji kụziere ihe ị matara banyere isiokwu ahụ ma chọpụta ebe ọ bụla ị nwere ike ịchọ ọmụmụ ihe ọzọ. Ekwela ka nsogbu ọ bụla ị na-eche ihu mee ka ị daa mba; kama, lee ha anya dị ka ohere maka ịzụlite onwe gị na imeziwanye.

P(rain) = 0.65. What is P(no rain)? A) 0.35 B) 0.65 C) 1.65 D) 0 Answer: A
A fair die is rolled once. What is P(multiple of 2 or multiple of 3)? A) 1/6 B) 1/2 C) 2/3 D) 5/6 Answer: C
Two fair coins are tossed. What is P(both land heads)? A) 1/2 B) 1/3 C) 1/4 D) 1/8 Answer: C
A bag has 4 red and 6 blue counters. One is drawn and NOT replaced, then a second is drawn. What is P(second is red | first is red)? A) 4/10 B) 3/9 C) 4/9 D) 3/10 Answer: B
A biased die has P(6) = 0.2. It is rolled 150 times. What is the expected number of sixes? A) 15 B) 20 C) 30 D) 75 Answer: C