Mathematics - 0580 CIE

Conditional Probability

Gbogbo ọrọ náà

Sometimes one event changes the chance of another. If you draw a counter from a bag and keep it, the next draw is from a smaller bag, so the probabilities shift. Conditional probability is the mathematics of these knock-on effects: the probability of one event given that another has already happened.

In this Extended topic you will work with conditional probability using tables, Venn diagrams and tree diagrams. The classic setting is drawing objects without replacement, where each draw alters what remains. Once you see how the branch probabilities change after the first event, problems that look hard become a tidy multiplication along a path.

Ebumnobi

  1. Calculate conditional probability using Venn diagrams, tree diagrams and tables.

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Akwụkwọ Ọmụmụ

Real events are rarely independent. A second card depends on the first, a medical test result depends on whether you actually have the condition, the chance of rain this afternoon depends on the morning. Conditional probability is how we reason correctly when new information changes the odds, and it is the foundation of risk, statistics and modern data science.

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Nnyocha Ọmụmụ

Ekele diri gi maka imecha ihe karịrị na Conditional Probability. Ugbu a na ị na-enyochakwa isi echiche na echiche ndị dị mkpa, ọ bụ oge iji nwalee ihe ị ma. Ngwa a na-enye ụdị ajụjụ ọmụmụ dị iche iche emebere iji kwado nghọta gị wee nyere gị aka ịmata otú ị ghọtara ihe ndị a kụziri.

Ị ga-ahụ ngwakọta nke ụdị ajụjụ dị iche iche, gụnyere ajụjụ chọrọ ịhọrọ otu n’ime ọtụtụ azịza, ajụjụ chọrọ mkpirisi azịza, na ajụjụ ede ede. A na-arụpụta ajụjụ ọ bụla nke ọma iji nwalee akụkụ dị iche iche nke ihe ọmụma gị na nkà nke ịtụgharị uche.

Jiri akụkụ a nke nyocha ka ohere iji kụziere ihe ị matara banyere isiokwu ahụ ma chọpụta ebe ọ bụla ị nwere ike ịchọ ọmụmụ ihe ọzọ. Ekwela ka nsogbu ọ bụla ị na-eche ihu mee ka ị daa mba; kama, lee ha anya dị ka ohere maka ịzụlite onwe gị na imeziwanye.

  1. A bag has 5 red and 3 blue counters. Two are drawn without replacement. What is P(both red)? A. 25/64 B. 20/56 C. 5/8 D. 4/7 Answer: B
  2. After drawing one red from a bag of 5 red and 3 blue (kept out), what is the probability the next is red? A. 5/8 B. 5/7 C. 4/7 D. 4/8 Answer: C
  3. Of 18 French students, 12 also study Spanish. A French student is chosen. What is P(studies Spanish)? A. 1/3 B. 2/5 C. 2/3 D. 12/30 Answer: C
  4. Which rule gives the probability of A and B in general? A. P(A) + P(B) B. P(A) x P(B given A) C. P(A) - P(B) D. P(A) / P(B) Answer: B
  5. A bag has 4 white and 2 black balls. Two are drawn without replacement. What is P(both white)? A. 4/9 B. 2/5 C. 1/3 D. 12/30 Answer: B

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